John Borthwick, CEO of Betaworks, produced a “treatise” blog post on the now/real time web.
The article is an observation piece on what’s organically happening in terms of how Twitter is impacting news, traffic patterns and audience. The Prezi presentation page is nicely done, and has great specific information.
Succinctly, he’s saying that the most desirable aspect of the internet to users, what’s new, is transforming from a page-based static medium to a stream-based information flow medium. The Twitter stream, and it’s wake (blogs, Digg, Facebook, Friendfeed, etc) represent where most of the new information is, and where current discussions and opinions now emerge. The stream carries the bulk of “new” information to the net.
It’s all pretty fascinating, although the more interesting question is how to make that valuable, how to find content. Even now, only a small core of expert users are able to put Twitter to real use. Borthwick brings up swarm types of traffic (like the Susan Boyle video). The migration of the now internet to the mainstream will require tools and people that have the know-how to create influence and harness value. When professors and scientists and companies and soccer moms are all adding to the stream, what software and revenue infrastructure will surround it. Most non-internet people that I know are lost when they arrive at Twitter; it’s out of context for them. So the value has yet to be created. Great technology brands like Google, Facebook, Apple have all succeeded in giving their users immediate impact value as soon as a page is loaded or a device is powered on.
Onramps to Twitter are in nascent stages, but they are being built at rapid speed. The sand getting all kicked up, it’s hard to see clearly.
I’ll sign off with my own Kundera quote:
“People are always shouting they want to create a better future. It’s not true. The future is an apathetic void of no interest to anyone. The past is full of life, eager to irritate us, provoke and insult us, tempt us to destroy or repaint it. The only reason people want to be masters of the future is to change the past.”
-Milan Kundera
I like this quote from Ron Conway mentioned in @nichcarlson’s article about Facebook becoming cash flow positive, and IPO-able:
“The next big thing is Twitter-like “persistent data,” which is “real-time data as its happening.” It’ll be a multi-billion economy.”
He predicts a huge market opening up over the next few years around recent data.
Apple buying Twitter is not such the uninteresting proposition it’s been called, for instance by Dan Frommer’s piece yesterday Why Apple Won’t Buy Twitter. With $29b in cash, they have a pile of cash which could be deployed over several strategic acquisitions to morph themselves to into a tech giant that could become the dominant tech/media competitor to Google.
What’s the prize for Apple? For one, a revaluation to Google PEs and possibly higher. This would build on the current decent PE of 23, then adding a new layer of high growth potential with now internet search advertising and media to Apple’s existing businesses. Apple as a tech media business, with iTunes, iPhone, and Twitter/Twitter search as a triple platform is a winning plan. I’d venture to guess that if advertising were in place on Twitter Search now, the eCPMs would kill AdWords at the moment. Google primarily earns click revenues from it’s first page of search, which suggests the “deepness” provided by Google’s search results is not required for ad revenues, it’s only the first couple of pages that matter.
In an Apple acquisition, Twitter should remain a separate brand and act as a separate division of Apple. The expansion of Apple’s business is where the value lies for Apple, rather than in the incorporation of Twitter into iPhone, MobileMe, etc. I agree with Dan Frommer, that makes no sense.
Here’s a high level look at each company:
Google is arguably still in the best position to monetize Twitter immediately, as it fits into their existing business. However, the Google brand might eclipse the Twitter brand, which would minimize the overall value in the long term because the “now internet” growth could very well be inhibited or forgotten when Twitter is gobbled into the intestines of the Google acquisition engine.
Charlie O’Donnell blogs a list of some great startup advice for pitching. Good combination of attitude and real world specifics!
http://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/2009/03/10-ways-to-improve-your-startup-pitch.html
Some highlights.
1. Be confident and realize that you are pitching at all times. I can’t tell you how many times I’m at a social event and someone tells me about their startup with the pitch equivilent of a “wet noodle” handshake. Everytime you tell someone what you do, that’s a pitch. Knock it out of the park every time.
2. Tell me something you learned about the market or your users–shows you are adaptable. The worst thing an entrepreneur can do is be “strong and wrong”. The best ideas are iterated on constantly–and the last person an investor wants to talk with their company about is someone who can’t take feedback.
4. Who currently supports what you’re doing with real action? Has anyone made a bet on you, or does the investor need to be the first one in the pool? Employees working for sweat equity, customer committments, family and friends willing to break their piggybanks for you–anything to make it so that the person you’re talking to doesn’t feel like Will Ferrell–naked in the town square with no one running behind him.
6. Convince investors that you are obsessed with the problem you are solving. This needs no explanation, but is often lacking.
7. What have you learned from your competitors–know them like the back of your hand. If an investor asks you, “Do you know the folks doing “x”?” and “x” is anything having to do with your business whatsoever, the answer better be yes, and you better know how you’re better than them, can learn from them, or can work with them… and preferably you already have spoken with them.
